Gold reversed from massive resistance last week (long term parallel is shown on the weekly chart below). I am bearish…at least near term. If the decline from last week’s high unfolds in 5 waves, then I’d be confidently bearish against the high and look to short a rally. For now, just know that levels to watch are 1672.50 for support (keep in mind that this is futures and not spot) and 1724.20 for resistance.
I like the USDCAD long setup with entry on the top side of the broken trendline. That line intersects 1.3940, which is where the drop from the 4/16 high would consist of 2 legs. Upside focus remains 1.4336/57 (weekly reversal resistance and 61.8% retrace).
4/16 – USDCAD stalled after spiking through 1.4160s. Trading focus remains higher with ideal support now narrowed to the 61.8% retrace of the rally from this week’s low at 1.3980. This would also be near the top side of the trendline that crosses highs since 3/23 (blue line).
The only change to Kiwi analysis is proposed resistance for the lower high (B wave). 2 equal legs from .5922 is .6071, which is in line with the 3/27 high.
4/16 – NZDUSD, which has lagged AUDUSD, is probably a better near term short. The decline from this week’s high is impulsive and probably wave A of an A-B-C corrective decline because the rally from the March low is in 5 waves (impulsive…view an hourly line chart to see that waves 1 and 4 do not overlap). The implication is that price bounces in wave B before turning lower in wave C. Focus for resistance is .6030. Initial downside focus is the 4th wave of one less degree at .5843.